<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="zh-cn">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge,chrome=1">
  <title>无序时代重又降临 - Libido Chateau</title>
  <meta name="renderer" content="webkit" />
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1, maximum-scale=1"/>

<meta http-equiv="Cache-Control" content="no-transform" />
<meta http-equiv="Cache-Control" content="no-siteapp" />

<meta name="theme-color" content="#f8f5ec" />
<meta name="msapplication-navbutton-color" content="#f8f5ec">
<meta name="apple-mobile-web-app-capable" content="yes">
<meta name="apple-mobile-web-app-status-bar-style" content="#f8f5ec">


<meta name="author" content="迷幻主义搬砖号子" /><meta name="description" content="我们其实正坐在一座危机四伏的火山上。吃瓜看戏并不像看起来那么安全。" /><meta name="keywords" content="数据, 时评, 人文" />


<meta name="baidu-site-verification" content="k5CktWnwfR" />
<meta name="google-site-verification" content="lO7fVN8Jm2sjiBOcR2knmNBKjtWcxS6KbuZYl2yELwA" />


<meta name="generator" content="Hugo 0.108.0 with theme even" />


<link rel="canonical" href="https://madlogos.github.io/post/protest-era-back/" />
<link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="180x180" href="/apple-touch-icon.png">
<link rel="icon" type="image/png" sizes="32x32" href="/favicon-32x32.png">
<link rel="icon" type="image/png" sizes="16x16" href="/favicon-16x16.png">
<link rel="manifest" href="/manifest.json">
<link rel="mask-icon" href="/safari-pinned-tab.svg" color="#5bbad5">

<script async src="//busuanzi.ibruce.info/busuanzi/2.3/busuanzi.pure.mini.js"></script>

<link href="/sass/main.min.67ad89b7ca43747ca0757fa0c720e4a26dfb092d0c625a7e1f3b937263f7d48d.css" rel="stylesheet">
<link rel="stylesheet" href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@fancyapps/fancybox@3.5.7/dist/jquery.fancybox.min.css" integrity="sha256-Vzbj7sDDS/woiFS3uNKo8eIuni59rjyNGtXfstRzStA=" crossorigin="anonymous">
<link rel="stylesheet" href="/css/custom.css">


<meta property="og:title" content="无序时代重又降临" />
<meta property="og:description" content="我们其实正坐在一座危机四伏的火山上。吃瓜看戏并不像看起来那么安全。" />
<meta property="og:type" content="article" />
<meta property="og:url" content="https://madlogos.github.io/post/protest-era-back/" /><meta property="article:section" content="post" />
<meta property="article:published_time" content="2019-08-16T00:00:00+00:00" />
<meta property="article:modified_time" content="2021-05-17T00:24:46+08:00" />

<meta itemprop="name" content="无序时代重又降临">
<meta itemprop="description" content="我们其实正坐在一座危机四伏的火山上。吃瓜看戏并不像看起来那么安全。"><meta itemprop="datePublished" content="2019-08-16T00:00:00+00:00" />
<meta itemprop="dateModified" content="2021-05-17T00:24:46+08:00" />
<meta itemprop="wordCount" content="1509">
<meta itemprop="keywords" content="公共卫生,市侩化," /><meta name="twitter:card" content="summary"/>
<meta name="twitter:title" content="无序时代重又降临"/>
<meta name="twitter:description" content="我们其实正坐在一座危机四伏的火山上。吃瓜看戏并不像看起来那么安全。"/>

<!--[if lte IE 9]>
  <script src="https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/classlist/1.1.20170427/classList.min.js"></script>
<![endif]-->

<!--[if lt IE 9]>
  <script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/html5shiv@3.7.3/dist/html5shiv.min.js"></script>
  <script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/respond.js@1.4.2/dest/respond.min.js"></script>
<![endif]-->

</head>
<body>
  <div id="mobile-navbar" class="mobile-navbar">
  <div class="mobile-header-logo">
    <a href="/" class="logo">Libido Chateau</a>
  </div>
  <div class="mobile-navbar-icon">
    <span></span>
    <span></span>
    <span></span>
  </div>
</div>
<nav id="mobile-menu" class="mobile-menu slideout-menu">
  <ul class="mobile-menu-list">
    <a href="/">
        <li class="mobile-menu-item">首页</li>
      </a><a href="/post/">
        <li class="mobile-menu-item">归档</li>
      </a><a href="/tags/">
        <li class="mobile-menu-item">标签</li>
      </a><a href="/categories/">
        <li class="mobile-menu-item">分类</li>
      </a><a href="/about/">
        <li class="mobile-menu-item">关于</li>
      </a>
  </ul>

  


</nav>

  <div class="container" id="mobile-panel">
    <header id="header" class="header">
        <div class="logo-wrapper">
  <a href="/" class="logo">Libido Chateau</a>
</div>





<nav class="site-navbar">
  <ul id="menu" class="menu">
    <li class="menu-item">
        <a class="menu-item-link" href="/">首页</a>
      </li><li class="menu-item">
        <a class="menu-item-link" href="/post/">归档</a>
      </li><li class="menu-item">
        <a class="menu-item-link" href="/tags/">标签</a>
      </li><li class="menu-item">
        <a class="menu-item-link" href="/categories/">分类</a>
      </li><li class="menu-item">
        <a class="menu-item-link" href="/about/">关于</a>
      </li>
  </ul>
</nav>

    </header>

    <main id="main" class="main">
      <div class="content-wrapper">
        <div id="content" class="content">
          <article class="post">
    
    <header class="post-header">
      <h1 class="post-title">无序时代重又降临</h1>

      <div class="post-meta">
        <span class="post-time"> 2019-08-16 </span>
        <div class="post-category">
            <a href="/categories/%E6%97%B6%E8%AF%84/"> 时评 </a>
            </div>
          <span class="more-meta"> 约 1509 字 </span>
          <span class="more-meta"> 预计阅读 4 分钟 </span>
        <span id="busuanzi_container_page_pv" class="more-meta"> <span id="busuanzi_value_page_pv"><img src="/img/spinner.svg" alt="spinner.svg"/></span> 次阅读 </span>
      </div>
    </header>

    <div class="post-toc" id="post-toc">
  <h2 class="post-toc-title">文章目录</h2>
  <div class="post-toc-content always-active">
    <nav id="TableOfContents">
  <ul>
    <li><a href="#1">1</a></li>
    <li><a href="#2">2</a></li>
  </ul>
</nav>
  </div>
</div>
    <div class="post-content">
      <div class="admonition abstract"><p class="admonition-title">引子</p>
<p>最近不大学好，重新翻起了墙。香港机场黑衣仔殴打内地客与记者的视频，我几乎第一时间就在FB和油管看到了。前期发起者所有贤者化的努力（捡走垃圾、摆回路障之类学生气十足的举动），都被这些拳脚一下一下打没了。事实上当金主加码，参与者装备越来越专业，越来越乞灵于英美，行动边界越来越侵入普通人生活时，整个事态就注定要滑入到暴戾和谎言交织的境地。所有街头政治都是这个结局，最后要么在无序升级中被无情镇压，要么捡起枪来成为严密的武装组织——土共正是后面这条道路的成功典范。收下八达通、蒙上脸才敢行凶的怂货，就别班门弄斧了。</p>
</div>
<p>顺道上推看西媒的文。西媒没什么惊喜，还是老样子：声援「和平抗议」、捍卫「自由价值」。一派闭眼都猜到的陈词滥调。有趣的是评论。威妥玛拼音id的多半是港台人，整屏的求援、控诉，但也有不少和他们对喷。简体中文id基本是大陆人，各种贴图反击，对喷，然后被骂水军，折叠。英文id多数声援黑衣人——这里要感谢闯王挡刀，相当一部分人跳过了声援香港的部分，直接上手骂闯王。大食和突厥id、拉丁id则有人附和，有人大喊误导。还有克什米尔人搭车请愿，但没人理睬。</p>
<p>小小推特，演尽世态炎凉。</p>
<h2 id="1">1</h2>
<p>键盘侠的高级形态就差不多是这样，看着万里之外他人的痛苦，用“自由”“民主”这类鄙视链上游的大词凑几句现成的轱辘话，抨击一下心目中邪恶的政府，又懒得去管什么“政府不等同于人民”这类政治正确的废话，就直接上地图炮。吃瓜砸键，我白故我在，感觉良好。</p>
<p>然而，我们其实正坐在一座危机四伏的火山上。吃瓜看戏并不像看起来那么安全。</p>
<p>2017年《外交事务》杂志发过一篇旧文，讨论社会骚乱。2010年以后，抗议和骚乱的数量直线上升，超过了嬉皮士时代。加上快速增长的恐怖袭击的话，整个世界秩序看起来就在走向瓦解崩坏。原因可能无外乎两点：信息技术赋能，组织骚乱如同组织快闪，成本更低廉；信息茧房让人们更难以实质交流，囿于小团体的愤怒情绪无法自缓。学不会预防疼痛，止痛药又太便宜，可不就容易上瘾？但人类悲剧的命运在于，祸不单行。我们正走出史上最长（人为揪长）的景气时期，迈进又一个滞胀期。作为景气金丝雀的韩国、新加坡、香港已经衰退。中国CPI破3，GDP眼看要破6，趋势不大会扭转。而欧洲呢，衰退信号强烈。美国只等股市泡沫破裂。这是全球性的衰退。滞胀期会发生什么？也许没钱发动骚乱了，但抗议会大幅增加。在今天的时代，更容易形成社会动荡。所以现在乘凉吃瓜的人，一两年后可能会发现自己也深陷暴乱频发的社区之中。</p>
<figure class="center"><img src="https://gh-1251443721.cos.ap-chengdu.myqcloud.com/2019/0816/1.jpeg" width="100%"/><figcaption>
            <h4>图 | 1919-2016年全球骚乱频次</h4>
        </figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="center"><img src="https://gh-1251443721.cos.ap-chengdu.myqcloud.com/2019/0816/2.jpeg" width="100%"/><figcaption>
            <h4>图 | 1920-2020年代六个样板国家的骚乱频次</h4>
        </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 id="2">2</h2>
<p>随着金主财阀开口表忠，组织者返美，港法庭事实上赞成警察维稳，这场暑期暴动也差不多要落幕了。毕竟只剩半个月，暑假作业总得补吧。不过整体形势不会乐观，后续一定不会很太平，重大节假日都将成为袭击的目标。围绕香港的所有战略，可能都要重做。</p>
<p>教训很深，多说两句，大陆这几年成功的关键是像运作企业一样运作国家：<strong>紧盯绩效目标(经济和国力的发展)，铁血组织，高效执行</strong>。对于一个企业来说，民主对管理层来说非但不必要，甚至可能有害。实施共和与法制往往是更好的选择。但当绩效目标偏离(更广义的福祉)，或旧绩效目标已经不再被新世代广泛接受，或收益不足以赎买整个执行过程中的受损感，那么挑战就来了。港青显然不认同这个复兴中华的绩效目标，他们打出的所有旗号，都只有狭隘的香港概念，无意兼容大陆情感，故而得不到大陆民众的同情。但这个先声，在滞胀期里会不会在大陆也冒出回响，就不好说了。毕竟“自由”、“民主”这种大词，就和“爱国”一样，常在衰退期被当春药来用。</p>
<p>但愿天下太平，安稳过冬。</p>
<p>[完]</p>
<hr>
<!-- {% raw %} -->
<figure class="center"><img src="https://gh-1251443721.cos.ap-chengdu.myqcloud.com/QRcode.jpg"
         alt="扫码关注" width="30%"/><figcaption>
            <h4>扫码关注我的公众号</h4>
        </figcaption>
</figure>
<!-- {% endraw %} -->
    </div>

    <div class="post-copyright">
  <p class="copyright-item">
    <span class="item-title">文章作者</span>
    <span class="item-content">迷幻主义搬砖号子</span>
  </p>
  <p class="copyright-item">
    <span class="item-title">上次更新</span>
    <span class="item-content">
        2021-05-17
        <a href="https://github.com/madlogos/hugo-blog.git/commit/87d7a4a208c070334c8268b94e6c86842f545e7b" title="changes on 2021年 5月17日 星期一 00时24分46秒 CST">(87d7a4a)</a>
    </span>
  </p>
  <p class="copyright-item">
      <span class="item-title">原始文档</span>
      <span class="item-content"><a class="link-to-markdown" href="https://madlogos.github.io/post/protest-era-back/index.md" target="_blank">查看本文 Markdown 版本 »</a></span>
    </p>
  <p class="copyright-item">
    <span class="item-title">许可协议</span>
    <span class="item-content"><a rel="license noopener" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-NC-ND 4.0</a></span>
  </p>
</div>
<div class="post-reward">
  <input type="checkbox" name="reward" id="reward" hidden />
  <label class="reward-button" for="reward">赞赏支持</label>
  <div class="qr-code">
    
    <label class="qr-code-image" for="reward">
        <img class="image" src="/img/reward/wechat.png">
        <span>微信打赏</span>
      </label>
    <label class="qr-code-image" for="reward">
        <img class="image" src="/img/reward/alipay.png">
        <span>支付宝打赏</span>
      </label>
  </div>
</div><footer class="post-footer">
      <div class="post-tags">
          <a href="/tags/%E5%85%AC%E5%85%B1%E5%8D%AB%E7%94%9F/">公共卫生</a>
          <a href="/tags/%E5%B8%82%E4%BE%A9%E5%8C%96/">市侩化</a>
          </div>
      <nav class="post-nav">
        <a class="prev" href="/post/flask-website-demo/">
            <i class="iconfont icon-left"></i>
            <span class="prev-text nav-default">edX作业：用Flask建一个简易图书查询Web应用</span>
            <span class="prev-text nav-mobile">上一篇</span>
          </a>
        <a class="next" href="/post/tectonics-is-more-evil/">
            <span class="next-text nav-default">侵私构陷才是更大的恶</span>
            <span class="next-text nav-mobile">下一篇</span>
            <i class="iconfont icon-right"></i>
          </a>
      </nav>
    </footer>
  </article>
        </div>
        <div id="disqus_thread"></div>
    <script type="text/javascript">
    (function() {
      
      
      if (window.location.hostname === 'localhost') return;

      var dsq = document.createElement('script'); dsq.type = 'text/javascript'; dsq.async = true;
      var disqus_shortname = 'madlogos-gh';
      dsq.src = '//' + disqus_shortname + '.disqus.com/embed.js';
      (document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0] || document.getElementsByTagName('body')[0]).appendChild(dsq);
    })();
    </script>
    <noscript>Please enable JavaScript to view the <a href="http://disqus.com/?ref_noscript">comments powered by Disqus.</a></noscript>

  

  

      </div>
    </main>

    <footer id="footer" class="footer">
      <div class="social-links">
      <a href="mailto:madlogos@gmail.com" class="iconfont icon-email" title="email"></a>
      <a href="https://stackoverflow.com/users/5455754/madlogos?tab=profile" class="iconfont icon-stack-overflow" title="stack-overflow"></a>
      <a href="https://twitter.com/madlogos" class="iconfont icon-twitter" title="twitter"></a>
      <a href="https://www.facebook.com/madlogos" class="iconfont icon-facebook" title="facebook"></a>
      <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/in/yiying-wang/" class="iconfont icon-linkedin" title="linkedin"></a>
      <a href="https://plus.google.com/&#43;%E6%B1%AA%E8%BD%B6%E9%A2%96madlogos" class="iconfont icon-google" title="google"></a>
      <a href="http://github.com/madlogos" class="iconfont icon-github" title="github"></a>
      <a href="https://weibo.com/madlogos/" class="iconfont icon-weibo" title="weibo"></a>
      <a href="https://www.zhihu.com/people/madlogos/" class="iconfont icon-zhihu" title="zhihu"></a>
      <a href="https://www.douban.com/people/Jandeaux/" class="iconfont icon-douban" title="douban"></a>
      <a href="https://jandeaux.tumblr.com" class="iconfont icon-tumblr" title="tumblr"></a>
      <a href="https://www.instagram.com/jandeaux/" class="iconfont icon-instagram" title="instagram"></a>
      <a href="https://gitlab.com/madlogos" class="iconfont icon-gitlab" title="gitlab"></a>
      <a href="https://space.bilibili.com/384080442" class="iconfont icon-bilibili" title="bilibili"></a>
  <a href="https://madlogos.github.io/index.xml" type="application/rss+xml" class="iconfont icon-rss" title="rss"></a>
</div>

<div class="copyright">
  <span class="power-by">
    由 <a class="hexo-link" href="https://gohugo.io">Hugo</a> 强力驱动
  </span>
  <span class="division">|</span>
  <span class="theme-info">
    主题 - 
    <a class="theme-link" href="https://github.com/olOwOlo/hugo-theme-even">Even</a>
  </span>

  <div class="busuanzi-footer">
    <span id="busuanzi_container_site_pv"> 本站总访问量 <span id="busuanzi_value_site_pv"><img src="/img/spinner.svg" alt="spinner.svg"/></span> 次 </span>
      <span class="division">|</span>
    <span id="busuanzi_container_site_uv"> 本站总访客数 <span id="busuanzi_value_site_uv"><img src="/img/spinner.svg" alt="spinner.svg"/></span> 人 </span>
  </div>

  <span class="copyright-year">
    &copy; 
    2017 - 
    2022
    
    <span class="author">madlogos</span>
  </span>
</div>

    </footer>

    <div class="back-to-top" id="back-to-top">
      <i class="iconfont icon-up"></i>
    </div>
  </div>
  
  <script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/jquery@3.6.0/dist/jquery.js" integrity="sha256-H+K7U5CnXl1h5ywQfKtSj8PCmoN9aaq30gDh27Xc0jk=" crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
  <script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/slideout@1.0.1/dist/slideout.min.js" integrity="sha256-t+zJ/g8/KXIJMjSVQdnibt4dlaDxc9zXr/9oNPeWqdg=" crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
  <script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@fancyapps/fancybox@3.5.7/dist/jquery.fancybox.min.js" integrity="sha256-yt2kYMy0w8AbtF89WXb2P1rfjcP/HTHLT7097U8Y5b8=" crossorigin="anonymous"></script><script></script><script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/raphael@2.3.0/raphael.min.js" integrity="sha256-TabprKdeNXbSesCWLMrcbWSDzUhpAdcNPe5Q53rn9Yg=" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/flowchart.js@1.12.1/release/flowchart.min.js" integrity="sha256-ANSuVJkHZftRURALG24omixaZG+Sb51/+JY6EDa7MdE=" crossorigin="anonymous"></script><script></script><script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/webfontloader@1.6.28/webfontloader.js" integrity="sha256-4O4pS1SH31ZqrSO2A/2QJTVjTPqVe+jnYgOWUVr7EEc=" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/snapsvg@0.5.1/dist/snap.svg-min.js" integrity="sha256-oI+elz+sIm+jpn8F/qEspKoKveTc5uKeFHNNVexe6d8=" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/underscore@1.10.2/underscore-min.js" integrity="sha256-av1TvywtZ4ZqyCj/6HdtCHSJdn80HAzTgEBTJt/O8uc=" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@rokt33r/js-sequence-diagrams@2.0.6-2/dist/sequence-diagram-min.js" integrity="sha256-eadHf9g1REH9Wvp2FLV/D9vKNvQUFKuVPgWFvmMQxBE=" crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
    <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@rokt33r/js-sequence-diagrams@2.0.6-2/dist/sequence-diagram-min.css" integrity="sha256-On01v36B8LRDuL2tqhqs7Gb3Cm/NIpsLFy4OarOodUA=" crossorigin="anonymous">



<script type="text/javascript" src="/js/main.min.4ae89da218555efa0e7093a20b92017d2e1202b66fff9fc2edf4cb8d44b44c6e.js"></script>
  <script type="text/javascript">
    window.MathJax = {
      tex: {
        inlineMath: [['$','$'], ['\\(','\\)']],
        tags: 'ams',
        }
    };
  </script>
  <script async src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/mathjax@3.0.5/es5/tex-mml-chtml.js" integrity="sha256-HGLuEfFcsUJGhvB8cQ8nr0gai9EucOOaIxFw7qxmd+w=" crossorigin="anonymous"></script>


<script type="application/javascript">
var doNotTrack = false;
if (!doNotTrack) {
	window.ga=window.ga||function(){(ga.q=ga.q||[]).push(arguments)};ga.l=+new Date;
	ga('create', 'UA-68964085-2', 'auto');
	ga('set', 'anonymizeIp', true);
	ga('send', 'pageview');
}
</script>
<script async src='https://www.google-analytics.com/analytics.js'></script>
<script id="baidu_analytics">
  var _hmt = _hmt || [];
  (function() {
    if (window.location.hostname === 'localhost') return;
    var hm = document.createElement("script"); hm.async = true;
    hm.src = "https://hm.baidu.com/hm.js?f221e23428218df65adeefe00f85e7ed";
    var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0];
    s.parentNode.insertBefore(hm, s);
  })();
</script>

<script id="baidu_push">
  (function(){
    if (window.location.hostname === 'localhost') return;
    var bp = document.createElement('script'); bp.async = true;
    var curProtocol = window.location.protocol.split(':')[0];
    if (curProtocol === 'https') {
      bp.src = 'https://zz.bdstatic.com/linksubmit/push.js';
    }
    else {
      bp.src = 'http://push.zhanzhang.baidu.com/push.js';
    }
    var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0];
    s.parentNode.insertBefore(bp, s);
  })();
</script>


<script src="/js/custom.js"></script>


</body>
</html>
